Zack Exley

People have been predicting that machines would take all the jobs since the invention of the power loom. So far, they've been wrong every time. I'm going to make the case that this time really is different.

What happens to the economy when AI layoffs start? What are the realistic scenarios, and why will the standard government responses fail?

Universal Basic Income is what most smart people assume is at least part of the solution. It's not. And I don't mean insufficient or politically difficult. I mean the math doesn't work.

Every argument for UBI, followed all the way to its conclusion, ends up being an argument for public ownership. There's exactly one arrangement where the math works.

The world we live in feels inevitable. It isn't. The present order is less than seventy-five years old. As recently as the 2020s, most people believed that the old system, with all its shocking deprav...

I was born in the city of Boston in the year 1999. No — not 2069, not 2079. I mean 1999. The twenty-sixth of December, in those last days of the twentieth century, when the end of the old millennium w...

The last evening of my former life was a Thursday in June. The twenty-fourth. I can look up the day of the week now, of course, but I knew it then too, because it was the evening of the engagement din...

The first thing I was aware of was warmth. Not the warmth of blankets or sunshine but something deeper, something that seemed to come from inside my bones, as though my skeleton had been gently heated...

Helen led me back inside and sat me down at a table in a room that opened onto a small garden. The garden was improbable, the kind of lush, effortless green that in my time you saw only in the lobbies...

I woke gasping. In the nightmare, Freid had been there — his face calm, clinical, as the capsule lid closed over me. The robots had held me down, their grip precise and indifferent, and I had screamed...

I woke early and couldn't get back to sleep. The room's light had shifted from its nighttime glow to something brighter, a pale gold that felt like morning even without a window to confirm it. I dress...

After breakfast, Edward asked if I'd like to go for a walk....

I woke in the dark and for several seconds I didn't know where I was....

The days after my breakdown were quiet. Helen and the family gave me space without giving me distance, a distinction I wouldn't have been able to articulate but felt clearly. Nobody avoided me. Nobody...

Edward asked me one morning if I needed anything....

It was Helen who brought it up, one evening after dinner when Edward and James had gone to help with something down the hill. We were in the garden, in the chairs that had become our usual places, and...

I joined the morning work....

That night I slept differently....

We walked down the hill after dinner, the four of us, into the part of the neighborhood I hadn't seen at night. The paths were lit with the same low amber glow I'd noticed on my solo walks, warm light...

I woke up with sore legs, sore feet, a faintly pounding head, and a feeling I hadn't had since college: the happy wreckage of a night well spent....

I need to say something about the tubes before I describe what happened next, because I know that for you, my dear readers, there is nothing remarkable about them. The tubes are to you what the intern...

The air in Lagos was warm and wet and heavy with smells I had no names for, sweet floral scents mixed with something green and vegetal and, underneath it all, the rich earthy smell of food being cooke...

We arrived in Sao Paulo at dusk. The air was warm and humid, thick with the smell of fruit and cooking oil and something floral, and the light through the station doors was golden and fading. We were...

I stepped out of the capsule groggy and disoriented. It was mid-afternoon in Beijing, bright sun falling through the station entrance, and my body had no idea what to do with that information. It was...

I slept hard after the trip. When I finally emerged, blinking, into Helen's garden that evening, she was in her chair with a cup of something warm, and she looked at me the way she always did, with pa...

"She went on television the night she was sworn in," Helen said....

Helen told me it was time....

It came up naturally, the way most things did now that I had my info. I was walking through the hill neighborhood on my way to morning work, passing the houses with their gardens and stone paths, and...

I was there when the argument happened, which is how I learned about governance....

Edward told me about the incident at breakfast, casually, the way you'd mention that a neighbor's tree had fallen....

I need to talk about Edward....

I put it off for another week. Every morning I told myself today was the day, and every morning I found a reason to weed instead, or walk instead, or write another section of this account instead of d...

I had been writing. Not every day, but most days, sitting in the garden or at the kitchen table, dictating to my info, shaping the account you are reading now. Helen had suggested it a few weeks after...

I asked my info to arrange it. I didn't trust myself to just start talking to the air and have his voice appear. I needed a moment, a threshold, something to step through....

That night I dreamed of 2027....

Technology is set to double our aggregate productivity once again — but in a totally unprecedented and upside down way. We know what to do about this. We just can't bring ourselves to think about it.

Two forgotten ideas that America needs now.

MAGA II will self-destruct and give progressives a chance at power in 2028. The Mission for America is a key to seizing that opportunity.

Here's a tool you can use to tell your favorite figures on X/Twitter that you'll leave it they do

Democrats must focus on real change, not attacking their own irrelevant fringe

Aside from the lies, hate, and riots.

Several forces are forcing global warming to take off. We're making plans for when political will finally does too.

Biden's expansion of protection for U.S. green industry is a good thing. Whining about China's strengths, however, is an embarrassing waste of time.

A comprehensive plan to build a clean economy that delivers prosperity for all

Having trouble imagining how the AI revolution will play out in the workplace? Here's a preview.

Yes, machines really are going to replace anyone who does their job on the Internet. Yes, it really will be the biggest economic and social revolution humans have ever faced. What is to be done?

Making U.S. vaccines available to all nations as fast as possible will require leadership that defies both progressive and conservative preferences.

Every industrialized nation got that way on purpose, with state-led investment a required piece of the process. The U.S. will not be able to get back to mass prosperity until we remember that.

Didn't we leave that behind in the 19th century?

The American Jobs Plan is historic in it's scale, but we can't pat ourselves on the back yet.

The failed campaign in Bessemer, Alabama, does not prove that workers don't want a union. It shows that workers see no logic in the labor movement's one-shop-at-a-time strategy.